What is the 3.5% protest rule and what does it mean for the US?
As the anti-Trump resistance has grown, so has talk of 3.5%, a figure which stems from research on previous movements
As the Guardian writes, political scientist Erica Chenoweth popularized the 3.5% protest rule, which suggests that if 3.5% of a population engages in sustained, nonviolent protest, a regime is likely to fall. This figure is now widely cited by anti-Trump activists as a rallying point.
While rooted in historical analysis of successful mass movements, experts caution that the rule is a descriptive observation, not a guarantee, and its success depends on many factors including organization, messaging, and political context.
In the U.S., where the democratic system is eroding but not fully authoritarian, applying the rule is complicated by institutional ambiguity and differing perceptions of the threat.
Activists and groups like Indivisible have referenced the figure as a target, but even Chenoweth emphasizes that prior movements didn’t aim for this number - they simply crossed it in hindsight.
Moreover, authoritarian regimes have adapted in recent years, learning to suppress even large-scale movements, making modern protest outcomes less predictable.
While mass mobilization against Trump is significant and growing, experts warn that focusing too narrowly on hitting a numerical threshold may obscure the importance of strategy, discipline, and political clarity.